Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Gut. Research. Favorite. Sleeper

How to pick your brackets? There's lot of advice out there, but does it work?
In just the past few days, here's a sampling of paces to find out how to make your picks.

Scientific Blogging features a Journal of Gambling Business and Economics paper.

"In the Sweet Sixteen round, the rankings still hold – but just barely," said Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor of computer science and the director of the simulation and optimization laboratory at Illinois. "From the Elite Eight round and onward, you might as well pick names out of a hat."
Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn is one of many in the Sports Universe to cite Ken Pomeroy's efficienty rankings. He uses them to predict which lower-seeds may upset higher seeds.


A New York Times article suggests picking underdogs and upsets is way overrated. Just go with the higher seed each time (BORING!)

CBS Sports offers breakdowns of three different methods of picking: High Risk; Medium Risk; and Low Risk, and their success rates in years past.

*Wednesday afternoon update*
Slate revisits a piece it had last year, suggest to "act like a hedge fund manager"

Wired, which included a link to the Slate article, has a link to a GoogleDoc, on how teams are over-, or undervalued.








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